So, What Gas Crisis ... Really?

I have to say I am amused by the so-called gas crisis. But then, I was the one that was forecasting in early 2006 that the price of gas would be past $4 before that year's end. Aren't you glad I was a bit premature? My prophecy came from all the shiny new upsized vehicles I was seeing with big engines and the spendthrift lifestyles of that time. Living rooms on wheels ... used as single person commuter vehicles.

So, who thinks this is a crisis? Really... Yes, the price of gas has gone up a hefty percentage. Well, if that's a crisis then what about the grocery crisis, clothing crisis ... and let's not forget the concert ticket crisis! Everywhere you look it's a crisis. Yes, it's inconvenient that gas is costing more. But a crisis? Who didn't see this coming?

It was clear years ago that the oil companies of the world had done a good job locating most of the world's oil. They knew where it was and had a good idea how much was there. The problems was getting at it cost effectively. New discoveries were declining years ago and known oil reserves aren't growing notably like during the decades before. But with our unrelenting appetite, demand kept growing. Something had to give. More drilling and pumping oil out of the ground faster works to temporarily manage the price problem.But nowadays it isn't about finding new oil. It's about pumping it out faster to keep up with demand. Forget trying to curb the demand. More oil faster is a good thing ... until it's all gone.

I say I'm amused and not surprised because I've learned to expect the reactionary swings. There was a real gas crisis back in the 1970's. It came in 1973 following a period when we took the price of gas for granted. Luxury cars, vans and big engine station wagons were selling briskly. Then, all of a sudden there was a gas shortage started by an Arab oil embargo. People reacted. They started hording and filling their tanks every couple of days. Gas stations got known for having long lines into roadways with people waiting to top off. If they had any gas left. The problem was only increased by the general reaction. So they made a law that you could only fill up on days determined by your license plate. Odd plates on odd numbered days, even plates on even days and so forth. People canceled discretionary trips. It became common to hear of gas siphoning and license plates being stolen. The price of gas went up to *gulp* over a dollar a gallon in some cases. All of a sudden there was talk of oil dependence and fuel economy. Car pooling became common. And those large vehicles plummeted in value as people started opting for smaller.

A bit of deja vu, maybe... And I have to say there is a part of me that hopes gasoline tops $5 a gallon. Or $10 ... to see if the neighborhood Humvees go the way of the station wagon... But then I believe $5 a gallon is only a matter of time. It has been shown that it takes a big price change in gas to affect behavior. That just might do it. But so far I still see rampant inefficiency as the biggest problem we can do something about.